Anyone who gives you a per-employee number without asking what the program is for is guessing. The same headcount can justify wildly different budgets depending on what the merchandise is meant to do.
Build the number from the program instead.
Separate the recurring from the one-off
Onboarding is a per-hire cost that repeats all year and should be forecast from your hiring plan, not your headcount. A company of 400 hiring 120 people a year has a bigger onboarding line than a company of 900 hiring 30.
Recognition is similar: driven by how many milestones fall this year, which is knowable.
Decide the tiers before the totals
Most of the spend should not be spread evenly. A modest item for everyone, something better at onboarding and milestones, and something genuinely good for long service produces a defensible structure. A single mid-priced item for everyone is the most expensive way to be forgettable.
Put fulfillment in the number
This is the line that gets missed and then blows the budget at approval. Shipping to individuals costs meaningfully more per head than one bulk delivery, and international adds duties. If your team is distributed, fulfillment is a real percentage of the program, not a rounding error.
Volume changes the arithmetic more than negotiation does
The difference between four short runs and one annual run is usually larger than anything you will win on unit price. Consolidating to one production run and holding stock is the single biggest lever, and it also fixes consistency.
Leave room for the thing you have not thought of
An acquisition, an office opening, an unplanned event. Programs that are budgeted to the last unit end up buying the unplanned item badly and at short-run prices.
Our guide to what actually moves merchandise pricing covers the per-unit variables, and employee programs covers running this as a standing arrangement.